Fleet Friday: Wither The P2F Conversions Era?
Blue Origin plans to fly the fiancee of owner Jeff Bezos, as well as singer Katy Perry, CBS Mornings co-host Gayle King and three other women on its next suborbital spaceflight, the company announced Feb. 27.
This week, we shift our focus slightly from Flight Friday to Fleet Friday.
Recent news noted the milestone of the 100th Boeing 767-300BCF and Boeing’s sale of its London Gatwick MRO facility to British Airways. This facility was expected to perform passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions on 737s, suggesting that the world of passenger-to-freighter conversions may have peaked.
Pre-pandemic, 2018 witnessed the highest number of P2F conversions, with just over 100 aircraft converted. Notably, half of these conversions (49) involved 757s and 767s. The grounding of the Boeing MAX in early 2019 led to a decline in P2F conversions, as operators chose to retain some of their legacy aircraft, which were well-suited for conversion, to maintain operations while they awaited the return of their MAX aircraft.
The pandemic created a perfect storm; with a significant drop in passenger demand, many aircraft became available. This also opened up slots for conversions. Moreover, the increase in eCommerce driven by people staying at home, coupled with the decrease in widebody movements (and thus the loss of belly cargo capacity), led to a surge in signed contracts for aircraft conversions.
This trend continued to rise throughout 2023, resulting in the conversion of 200 aircraft—almost double the pre-pandemic high. A third of these conversions consisted of 737s, while 15% involved Airbus A321s. However, ongoing challenges for OEMs regarding the delivery of new aircraft—stemming from supply chain issues and other factors combined with a resurgence in passenger demand—have prompted operators to retain their legacy fleets to keep businesses running.
As a result, we expect the total number of conversions in 2024 to drop below 120 aircraft. The 737 is anticipated to continue accounting for a third of the conversions, with 10% involving A321s. Additionally, there is a notable increase in conversions of A330s as this platform matures and the availability of equivalent-sized aircraft, such as the 767, becomes scarce. Consequently, freighter operators are seeking alternative aircraft for conversion.
This data was put together using the Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database.
