Asia-Europe Air Traffic Resilient Despite Geopolitical Hurdles

The flow of air traffic between the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region and Europe exhibited “remarkable resilience” in 2024, overcoming geopolitical tensions and pandemic-induced setbacks to surpass pre-COVID levels.

According to data from Eurocontrol, flights connecting the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) region to APAC grew 21% compared to 2023, marking an 8% increase over 2019 levels. ECAC represents 44 European states in civil aviation matters, helping coordinate policy and connectivity across the region.

However, the recovery was far from uniform, with market dynamics influenced by China’s delayed reopening and the ongoing impact of restricted access to Russian airspace. Airlines that continued flying over Russia saw flight volumes rise by 19% compared to 2019, while those forced to reroute faced higher costs and an 18% decline in traffic, resulting in a 7% overall market share loss.

The most significant driver of the recovery was China, which accounted for 33% of Europe-APAC traffic. In 2024, daily flights to and from China increased by 45% compared to the previous year, benefiting from the full lifting of COVID-19 travel restrictions. Even with route adjustments due to the closure of Ukrainian and Russian airspace, China-Europe flights were 4% above 2019 levels.

India also played an important role, with traffic up 30% over 2019. The largest growth in Indian connectivity came from Azerbaijan (+154%), alongside notable increases with the UK (+5%), Germany (+17%) and France (+2%). Kazakhstan emerged as a major player, overtaking Japan, South Korea and Thailand to become the third-largest Europe-APAC market.

The closure of Russian airspace to many European carriers created significant operational challenges, forcing longer routes and higher fuel consumption. This particularly impacted airlines from Japan and South Korea, both of which chose to avoid Russian airspace despite no official bans. Europe-Japan traffic remained 25% below 2019 levels, while Europe-South Korea, though experiencing flat growth in 2024, nearly recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

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Meanwhile, Turkey and Central Asia capitalized on the shifting dynamics. Bilateral agreements between Turkey and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan led to expanded flight connections. The Azerbaijani capital of Baku, bolstered by its strategic position, became a key refueling stop for cargo carriers. By the end of 2024, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia accounted for 26% of ECAC-APAC traffic, up from 19% in 2019.

Despite a temporary slowdown in late 2023 due to conflicts in the Middle East, Europe-APAC air traffic ended the year ranking behind only the North Atlantic and North Africa flows in terms of recovery. The overall APAC region saw an 11% growth in air traffic from 2023 and finished 10% above 2019 levels.