Shipping dodges another bullet as “Frexit” is averted

TIN news:  World trade growth is still something of a paradox this year, given the political uncertainties surrounding the global economy. Another one such instance was during the past weekend, when, as per the latest weekly report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, “we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer. This latest win managed by Macron’s lead over Le Pen in the first round of France’s presidential elections, might be but a small victory given that we still have to wait for the second round where the two will go head to head, but it seems as though the overwhelming nationalist and protectionist tide may well be subsiding. Obviously this may only be the first round and no one knows for sure how things may sway over the coming weeks”.

According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking, “the risk is quite significant and as such it is no surprise that we have seen a considerable easing of investor nerves worldwide. Both the Euro and European stock exchanges surged as more and more people started to assume that a victory by Emmanuel Macron is more likely now. The reason behind the relief has mainly been due to the main proposals that Marine Le Pen stands for. Her proposal to have a more inward focus both politically and economically, closing off borders and retracting from several trade agreements including the European Union and the Euro could have serious repercussions. A Frexit could easily bring about a collapse of the European Union as such bringing about a domino effect to some of the largest economies in the world as well as one of the most influential consumer basis. This would surely degrade global growth and would inevitably slowdown worldwide trade further. At the same time, it would further boost support for similar political positions around the world and would fuel for similar outcomes to occur in other countries both in Europe and the rest of the world. This may sound exaggerated and to some extent it is, however it is important to note how things started to escalate after the Brexit vote in the U.K with many seeing Trump’s rise partly fuelled by those events, while you could even point out that Marine Le Pen’s rise itself has been in part helped by both these voting results in the U.K. and U.S”, Allied’s analyst said.

Lazaridis went on to mention that “there is much in stake for shipping as well, as any event that has a deteriorating effect of trade would likely shift demand for shipping of finished products. It’s true that raw resources would unlikely be restricted by trade tariffs and bans, however if trade of finished goods was to be cut off considerably, we would be unlikely to see the same amount of demand for the raw resources that go into the production of those respective finished goods that would be affected by trade barriers. A good example of this is steel products, whereby a restriction of imports from let’s say China would in turn decrease China’s demand for both iron ore and met coal. For now we breathe a sigh of relief in this regard as this sort of possibility becomes more and more an unlikely outcome, however there is still much at stake even after the second round of the French presidential election as it will take much to overturn the rise in this sort of sentiment and a renewed belief for the benefits of trade and open borders”, the shipbroker concluded.