Dry Bulkers’ Pricing Is About to Drop in Coming Weeks, as Buyers Are Offering Lower than Asking Prices

Shipowners looking to invest in the SnP market for dry bulk carriers have started to consistently offer lower than asking values for ships that may interest them, in a sign that asset prices could be set for a correction in the coming weeks, shipbroker Intermodal said in its latest weekly report. “Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past three weeks, with the number of potential Buyers having decreased noticeably. Despite this recent slowdown, interest in second-hand tonnage has been undeniable, evidenced by the 100 deals that have concluded from the beginning of July up until the first days of September, which concerns all dry bulk sizes from small Handies built in the 90’s to modern Kamsarmax and Capesize vessels”, said Intermodal.

According to Mr. George Iliopoulos, SnP Broker with Intermodal, “an important observation is that, with very few exceptions (presence of a COA, private equity funding etc.) where buyers will offer levels close to Sellers’ ideas, we usually see owners inspecting and offering at much lower levels compared to the asking price. If this trend continues in the following weeks as well, it will naturally affect asset prices negatively”.

Iliopoulos added that “another important factor that is currently shaping the SnP market and the respective asset values in the dry bulk sector, is that with the exception of very modern Japanese tonnage (usually built 2013 onwards), there is an obvious abundance of sale candidates in the market, with built date ranging from 1998 up to 2012. This allows perspective Buyers to keep testing the market, which means that they will offer at – sometimes significantly – lower levels compared to the asking price, feeling assured that if their offer is not accepted by the respective Seller, they will divert their interest to the next similar available candidate”.

He added that “a representative example of this trend can be found in the Supramaxes built in Cebu from 2005 until 2010. There are at least 10 such vessels currently in the market either on private basis or officially. The respective interest for such vessels though is currently not sufficient for these candidates to be sold and that is why each of these candidates sees a maximum of 2-3 Buyers inspecting them. Another example of the ample supply of bulkers currently available for sale is that of Japanese Panamax and Kamsarmax vessels built during 2004-2008, with around 15 such vessels currently available for sale and maximum 4 Buyers keen for such tonnage”.

Meanwhile, “aside from the above trend, the appetite displayed during the past months by Chinese and Middle Eastern buyers for vessels built in the late 90’s is also notable. Handysize vessels and loggers in particular have indeed seen demand spiking up, with some of these candidates achieving impressive numbers indeed when compared to younger candidates of the same size. A representative example in this case is a ’98 built Handy that was recently sold for USD 5.5 million, while another Handy half the age achieved USD 8.4 million”, Intermodal’s analyst said.

Iliopoulos added that “as far as bulkers built in the 90’s are concerned, there is also an oversupply of vessels in the market for sale, with more than 20 Handy/Handymax candidates built from 1995 up to 1999 currently looking for Buyers. Saying this, we do believe that most of these Sellers are more interested in finding out how the market values their respective ship and less in actually selling them. The above trends could easily change if the freight market strengthens during the last quarter of the year, in which case we do expect to see more Buyers and many of the vessels currently up for sale being withdrawn”, he concldued.