Commercial Fleet 10-Year Forecast Shows Airbus Taking Prominence

Narrowbody types will lead recovery efforts, with the Airbus A320neo family outpacing the Boeing 737 MAX family. Of all the new aircraft that are expected to be delivered between 2025 and 2034, 70% will be from these two aircraft families. In the twin aisle market segment, the 787 and A350 will see the largest numbers of shipments.

Deliveries of over 11,200 new Airbus aircraft are expected over the forecast, accounting for 51% of the total. Boeing is expected to deliver more than 8,800 aircraft, representing a 40% share of total deliveries.

The two largest manufacturers therefore account for 91% of aircraft deliveries globally over the forecast period. The forecast reveals a 3.1% CAGR fleet growth during the period, with 44,600 aircraft in service by 2033.

Produced with independent projections and data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams, the forecast findings show MRO aftermarket demand growth producing nearly $1.4 trillion in MRO demand, after growing at a 3.2% CAGR.

With increased utilization and longer-lived engines and airframes, engine shop visits are expected to yield $557.6 billion in demand, necessitating over 95,000 overhaul events over the decade.

The two largest manufacturers therefore account for 91% of aircraft deliveries globally over the forecast period. The forecast reveals a 3.1% CAGR fleet growth during the period, with 44,600 aircraft in service by 2033.

Produced with independent projections and data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams, the forecast findings show MRO aftermarket demand growth producing nearly $1.4 trillion in MRO demand, after growing at a 3.2% CAGR.

With increased utilization and longer-lived engines and airframes, engine shop visits are expected to yield $557.6 billion in demand, necessitating over 95,000 overhaul events over the decade.