Ryanair Revises 2026 Traffic Forecast Down On Boeing Delays

Ryanair reported a strong rise in its net profit for the December quarter and expects to reach 200 million passengers for fiscal 2025, the airline said.

The carrier said Boeing’s delivery delays means Ryanair will not meet its previous prediction of 210 million passengers for fiscal 2026.

The airline had 172 Boeing MAX aircraft in its fleet of 609 aircraft as of Dec. 31 and said it was continuing to work with Boeing to accelerate aircraft deliveries; the company paid a visit to Seattle earlier in January.

“While 737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we no longer expect Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of summer [20]25 to facilitate [fiscal 2026] traffic growth to 210 [million] passengers,” CEO Michael O’Leary said. “Boeing delays have forced us to revise our [fiscal 2026] traffic target to 206 million, just 3% growth.”

The airline is hopeful the remaining 29 MAXs in its 210 orderbook will be delivered before March 2026, “enabling us to recover this delayed traffic growth in summer ‘26 instead of summer ‘25,” O’Leary added. “Boeing expects the MAX-10 to be certified in late 2025 which, we hope, will facilitate a timely delivery of our first 15 MAX-10s in Spring 2027 (as contracted).”  

Ryanair said revenue rose 10% to €2.96 billion ($3.1 million) in its fiscal third quarter (Q3), with scheduled revenue up 10% to €1.92 billion as traffic grew 9% at marginally higher Q3 average. Ancillary revenues also rose 10% to €1.04 billion in the three-month period. Operating costs rose 8% to €2.93 billion as fuel hedge savings offset higher staff and other costs due partly to Boeing delivery delays.

The airline said around 85% of fuel is hedged for the fourth quarter and for the coming financial year, hedging stands at over 75%.

For the entirety of its fiscal 2025, which ends March 31, the airline now expects “almost 200 million passengers,” as long as there is no further bad news on delivery delays from Boeing. At its fiscal half-year results presentation Nov. 4, 2024, Ryanair said it was targeting between 198 million and 200 million.

The airline plans to reallocate the extra capacity it does receive to airports in Italy, Poland, and Sweden that are abolishing or reducing aviation taxes. This would be in reference to recent developments and debate in Europe about different countries’ approach to taxation of the aviation sector in a bid to reduce emissions, the airline said.  

Ryanair expects short-haul capacity to remain constrained in 2025, thanks to Pratt & Whitney engine issues affecting Airbus operators, delivery backlogs for both Airbus and Boeing, and ongoing consolidation moves, the airline said.

Unit costs are performing in line with expectations and should be broadly flat for the full-year, Ryanair said.

“Our fuel hedge savings, strong interest income and some modest aircraft delay compensation are largely offsetting ex-fuel cost inflation, particularly for crew pay and productivity increases, higher handling and ATC fees, and the cost inefficiency of repeated Boeing 737 delivery delays,” the carrier added.  

Ryanair’s fiscal Q3 fares were marginally stronger year-on-year, but its fiscal fourth quarter will not benefit from an early Easter, like 2024, making comparisons “very challenging,” Ryanair said.

The airline added that it was “cautiously guiding financial year profit after tax in a range of €1.55-1.61 billion”—but the outcome will depend on avoiding negative impacts from factors such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, more Boeing delivery delays, or air traffic control (ATC) problems. On the last point, Ryanair said that after record ATC delays in 2024, it was renewing its call for the European Commission to deliver reforms to the region’s ATC system, and to demand adequate staffing at air navigation service providers.