What U.S. Trade Tariffs Could—Or Could Not—Mean For Air Cargo Operators

Air cargo operators are trying to keep calm as concern grows about what U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs ultimately will mean for their businesses and for global trade.

Tariffs tend to reduce the sale of goods in and out of the tariff imposer nation (in this case, the U.S.) and the imposed (which almost always retaliates with its own tariffs). With e-commerce, it could be particularly bad for the air cargo business, which has seen much of its recent boom come from that growth sector.

But predicting the exact impact and outcome is almost impossible, especially as Trump seems to move back and forth on his tariff targets.   

Specialist cargo analyst Xeneta forecasts a 4-6% growth for global air cargo in 2025, despite market nervousness over the new tariffs and a shaky start to the year following record global air cargo volumes in 2024.

“The lower growth in air cargo demand in January was not down to President Trump, nor, entirely, the earlier Lunar New Year. It also compares to an unusually high comparison in January 2024,” Xeneta chief air freight officer Niall van de Wouw wrote in a Feb. 5 research note.

“Nonetheless, the air cargo market in entering a period of uncertainty, which makes planning extremely challenging.”

One of the biggest challenges for air cargo operators, particularly those focused on e-commerce, is Trump’s move to not only impose a 10% tariff on goods into the U.S. from China, but also to scrap the “de minimis” exception which exempted lower value goods from duties.

E-commerce accounts for about a fifth of air cargo tonnage worldwide, and the U.S. is a major market within that. With some 4 million e-commerce packages a day arriving in the U.S., the real problem is the added complexity and disruption of gathering those revenues that will create problems for operators, The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) director general Glyn Hughes said.

“What we are seeing now in the U.S., with tariff introductions, removal of de minimis exemptions, and the potential for increased data filing obligations, will result in inflationary measures, supply chain complexity, and most likely retaliatory measures,” Hughes said. “TIACA fully supports open and free trade as the most effective way to support global economic prosperity, helping all communities improve the lives of their citizens. Therefore, any time restrictive measures are introduced, it has the potential to negatively impact the delicate balance that exists in the trade environment.”

The de minimus exemption was then suspended in early February to allow customs officials time to get the right systems in place, adding to the confusion.

The latest announcements on U.S. e-commerce import changes came during the February Lunar New Year holiday when most Chinese factories were closed.

“We were being made aware of clearance blockages upon arrival in the U.S. as millions of extra shipments required some form of border clearance,” Hughes said.

“The next few weeks will start to see to what extent these measures will impact longer-term demand. We could see the start of supply chain shifts as e-commerce originating from other markets benefit from the exemption.”

In the longer term, the question will be whether the consumer is prepared to wait longer for something if they can get it cheaper, van de Wouw said.

“In this scenario, we’d expect to see a major downward impact on freight rates at a global level, but to predict this now would be to ‘cry wolf’.”

Similarly, van de Wouw points out it is the early days of the second Trump administration and much could change. “The implementation of tariffs by the U.S. and the responses of China, Canada, and Mexico are just the start of a negotiation. It’s all transactional,” he said.

“We don’t know what will happen, but we do understand that uncertainty is not good for trade confidence, and it doesn’t help investment. If I was a shipper, I would not be rushing to make too many plans or take any drastic measures. I’d have my team ready to do things differently, but I’d wait to see what actually happens because, right now, there’s a lot of saber-rattling and noise but little clarity.”

Uncertainty, then, is the problem to be handled for now. Air cargo operators are keeping calm, carefully monitoring developments, and, if they are wise and have the resources, building flexibility into their business models.

“Overall, we can expect to see the international trade environment remain volatile for the foreseeable future as geopolitics and trade become much more interwoven,” Hughes said.