Dry Bulk to Suffer Under China Tariffs

On Friday, China announced a tariff increase of 34% on all US imports, in retaliation to the new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump. These are in addition to tariffs implemented in February and March, focusing on goods such as grains, coal, LNG and crude oil.

In 2024, China was the third largest importer of US exports (measured by value), accounting for 7% of US exports. Chemicals, computer and electronic products, agricultural products, transportation equipment and oil and gas made up 18%, 14%, 13%, 13% and 9% of the value of US exports to China.

BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, says the tariffs are expected to negatively impact trade between both economies and hurt their economic growth. “The US agricultural sector is expected to be significantly impacted, as it exported $18.2 billion worth of goods to China, or equivalent to 23% of US exports.

"We expect the dry bulk market to be negatively impacted by these tariffs, affecting primarily the panamax and supramax segments. In terms of volume, grains, coal and petcoke are the largest exported commodities. As these cargoes become comparatively more expensive, China will likely boost imports from other trade partners, such as Brazil, Ukraine, Indonesia, Russia, Australia and Mongolia. Conversely, US exporters may seek alternative markets for their goods."

The tanker trade may not be greatly impacted by these tariff increases. China can turn to OPEC and Brazil to replace the oil so far bought in the US and the US should also be able to find other willing buyers.

"There is naturally a risk that the compound effect of all recent tariff increases will cause economic activity to slow, and we may therefore see negative impacts that stretch beyond those caused directly the tariff increases."